Exploratory Cardiovascular Risk Modeling of Orforglipron Using the PREVENT Equations Compared with the Pooled Cohort Equations: A Post-Hoc Analysis from a Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.
Adir Alper, Adina Fagin, Aditya Karthikeyan et al.
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In 30 seconds
This post-hoc analysis compared cardiovascular risk reduction projections for orforglipron using the 2013 Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE) and the 2023 AHA PREVENT equations. The study found that the PREVENT HbA1c-enhanced model indicated relative risk reductions 75-90% larger than PCE across various patient profiles and doses, highlighting the importance of incorporating additional cardiometabolic factors.
Key findings
- The PREVENT HbA1c-enhanced model projected a 31.4% relative risk reduction at the 36 mg dose for a representative patient, compared to 16.8% by PCE.
- Approximately one-third of the total risk reduction by PREVENT was attributed to HbA1c lowering.
- PREVENT projected a 22.4% reduction in 10-year heart failure risk, which PCE did not assess.
- The PREVENT model reclassified risk from borderline to low risk at all doses, unlike PCE.
Why it matters
Understanding the differences in cardiovascular risk projections between modeling tools is crucial for clinicians when evaluating treatment options. The AHA PREVENT equations may provide a more accurate assessment of the cardiometabolic benefits of therapies like orforglipron, potentially influencing treatment decisions.