SPOT: An Early Detection Tool for Predicting Pain Trajectories Following Intra-Articular Injections.
J Orthop ResSep 1, 2026
Brittany L Nelson, Prathap Jayaram, Scott D Boden et al.
✦ AI-curated · Sources linked
In 30 seconds
This randomized controlled trial aimed to identify 12-month pain trajectories in knee osteoarthritis (KOA) patients post-injection and develop a predictive model using patient-reported pain scores. Among 317 participants, 66.6% exhibited an Improved Pain trajectory, while 33.4% had Persistent Pain. The prediction model achieved an AUC of 0.785 in training and 0.792 in the test set.
Key findings
- 66.6% of patients followed an Improved Pain trajectory, while 33.4% had a Persistent Pain trajectory.
- The prediction model achieved an AUC of 0.785 in training and 0.792 in the held-out test set.
- Sensitivity of the model was 0.790, with specificity at 0.692 and accuracy at 0.761.
Why it matters
Understanding pain trajectories in KOA patients can guide treatment decisions and improve patient outcomes. The SPOT web calculator offers a practical tool for clinicians to predict patient responses to orthobiologic treatments based on early pain scores.