Estimation of mortality hazard ratios by COPD grade using a systematic review and network meta-analysis: deriving grade-, sex-, and age-specific mortality for a German COPD decision model.
Sci RepSep 9, 2026 (epub)
Tobias Niedermaier, Ulrich Mansmann, Rolf Holle
✦ AI-curated · Sources linked
In 30 seconds
This systematic review and network meta-analysis evaluated mortality hazard ratios (HRs) for Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) grades in a German population. It included 1,459,685 participants from 34 studies, revealing a monotonic increase in mortality with COPD grade. The HRs for GOLD grades 1-4 were 1.09, 1.57, 2.39, and 4.54, respectively.
Key findings
- Mortality hazard ratios increased with COPD grade: 1.09 for GOLD 1, 1.57 for GOLD 2, 2.39 for GOLD 3, and 4.54 for GOLD 4.
- 1-year mortality probabilities ranged from 0.15% for females with GOLD 1 (ages 45-49) to 64.8% for males with GOLD 4 (age ≥85).
- The study included 1,459,685 participants, with 966,144 having normal spirometry.
Why it matters
Understanding grade-specific mortality probabilities in COPD is crucial for accurate cost-effectiveness evaluations and decision-making in clinical practice. This evidence can inform treatment strategies and resource allocation.