Measles transmission-related epidemiological parameter estimates: a systematic review and meta-analysis.
Kusala Pussegoda, Mavra Qamar, Melanie Sterian et al.
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In 30 seconds
This systematic review and meta-analysis synthesized English- and French-language primary studies reporting measles transmission-related epidemiological parameters, identified through 14 May 2024. Across 612 studies published between 1910 and 2024, the authors compiled 1,209 estimates covering 32 parameters and used random-effects meta-analysis and descriptive summaries. Pooled estimates included an incubation period of 13.5 days (95%CI 12.6-14.4; I² = 95.9%) and a serial interval of 12.4 days (95%CI 11.5-13.4; I² = 97.6%). The median basic reproduction number was 11.5, with a range of 0-57.
Key findings
- The pooled incubation period was 13.5 days (95%CI 12.6-14.4; I² = 95.9%).
- The pooled serial interval was 12.4 days (95%CI 11.5-13.4; I² = 97.6%).
- Symptom onset to hospitalization was estimated at 4.8 days (95%CI 3.7-5.8; I² = 99.7%).
- The basic reproduction number had a median of 11.5, with a range of 0-57.
Why it matters
These synthesized estimates provide a broad evidence base for understanding measles transmission and for parameterizing infectious disease models used in outbreak projections. The substantial heterogeneity reported for pooled timing estimates is also important context when applying summary values across populations and settings. The review’s repository project aims to make epidemiological parameter evidence more accessible and reduce duplicated synthesis work.
What to keep in mind
Heterogeneity was very high for the pooled incubation period, serial interval, and symptom-onset-to-hospitalization estimates, limiting how uniformly these summary values may apply across settings.